This is a miss. The storm was caused by about 6 hours of moderate (Bzm = -11 nT) southward Bz field. P1 exceeds 0.5 only briefly at DOY 284. The reason is probably two-fold: Dst was already around -50 nT for a few days and the southward Bz period was interrupted by short periods of northward IMF. However, the dalgorithm did generate a significant P1 (< 0.5) for approximately 10 hours, indicating that it did anticipate some storm activity. This miss is similar to that of DOY 111.